QB Rankings - Reaction

Last week we released our QB rankings for the upcoming 2015 NFL season. There are some big names that are primed for a less than stellar season.



Drew Brees  
I think Drew Brees is about as safe a bet you can make to finish as a top 10 QB this year, however, don’t expect an automatic top 5 finish that we are accustomed to. Here are the top 5 moves that the Saints have made for their offensive unit this offseason:

Losses
  • Jimmy Graham
  • Pierre Thomas

Additions
  • Top 5 run blocking center (Max Unger from Seattle)
  • 1st round pick on Andrus Peat (Run blocking OT)
  • Signed CJ Spiller to 4 year deal
  • Re-signed Mark Ingram to 4 year deal

If you take a look at the moves that the team made, there is a pretty clear pattern – New Orleans offense is going to place much greater emphasis on the run game. Brandin Cooks is going to be a star, but that’s about it for receiving threats as Colston has lost a step at age 32 and Brees' top target Jimmy Graham is gone. Pierre Thomas seems like a small loss, but he has been a very reliable pass catcher for the Saints and will be missed.

Draft Day Impact: Don’t overpay for Brees. A QB like Romo or Roethlisberger will provide comparable numbers for a much lower cost.

This seems to be my favorite late round flier that I don’t expect to be a star this year, but is someone I would consider to have the upside to rank 10-15 for QB’s by the end of the year. The Raiders have put their trust in Carr as noted by their signing of Christian Ponder to be his back up. Carr now has the tools surrounding him this year to help him succeed, which was not the case last year during his rookie campaign. The Raiders added C Rodney Hudson (top 5 at his position) to upgrade the line, and added WR’s Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree. Cooper is a star in waiting and Crabtree has top 40 WR talent who will be a great #2 option.

Draft Day Impact: Take a flier on Carr as a #2 QB late in the draft. Don’t count on him being your starter all year as I think his ceiling is the 10th best QB, and I think he is more likely to land around 15-18. He should provide some great value though as he is ranked as the 25-28th best QB on most draft boards.

I really like Winston to come in and play at the level of a top 15 QB. Tampa Bay has surrounded him with great weapons in WR Mike Evans, WR Vincent Jackson, and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins. You can't ask for better weapons than that! Not to mention Evans and Seferian-Jenkins are both young and project to develop even more. The Bucs also addressed their worst unit in the draft by taking OT Donovan Smith. He is expected to take over at LT right away to help upgrade the line. Jameis has great numbers facing the blitz and against pressure while at Florida State, so I believe he will be able to handle the NFL challenges.

Draft Day Impact: All rookie QB's face some bumps along the road. Jameis Winston has all the tools in place to succeed so after the first month of the season expect to see him put up starter type numbers. Don't bank on him being your starter all year, but I would pair him with another low end safer bet QB like Phillip Rivers or Eli Manning to give yourself a strong duo to ride out the rookie bumps along the road.

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