Green Bay Packers Offense

What does the loss of Jordy Nelson mean for the Packers?

The season ending injury to Jordy Nelson brings about a big change to the Green Bay offense. Nelson was ranked anywhere from the 5th-9th best WR in fantasy football, so this is a huge loss for any team. However, Green Bay has the assets in place to minimize the impact of this loss.

First up is Randall Cobb. Some are tempted to boost his ranking to #5 overall, however don't be too quick to do so. Cobb is more of a slot receiver with sure hands and he is slippery after the catch - he ranked 6th in YAC last year. However, his role in the offense will not be much different as he already has plenty of targets (126), and the impact to his stock is a higher floor and slightly higher ceiling. He won't see less than 130 targets, but he will likely not see more than 150. In my rankings I have moved him up one spot to the number 7, a slot behind Calvin Johnson and ahead of Alshon Jeffery.

Eddie Lacy is also plenty busy with the workload he received last year, so I'm not buying into the argument that he receives a materially different workload this year. He had 246 carries and 55 targets last year. To keep him fresh, the Packers will limit him to a similar workload this year. He will not go above 260 carries and 55 targets is a reasonable expectation.

Richard Rogers, the starting TE, had 30 targets and 225 yards last year. I'm going to stop right there with him. He will not be replacing Jordy Nelson.

Enter Davante Adams, the second year WR that served as a more than capable third option to Aaron Rodgers last year. He has the body type (6'1" 215 LB's) to play on the outside in Jordy Nelson's position. Jordy gobbled up 150 targets last year, and I expect Adams to step in and take about 125 targets this year. In my rankings, he is listed as the 17th WR on the board, Ahead of Sammy Watkins and behind Keenan Allen. The only reason I have Allen ahead of Adams is the boom potential. Keenan Allen is a little more boom or bust as he has a lower floor and higher ceiling. Back to Adams though. Jordy put up a stat line of 1,500 yards and 13 TD's, so with a slightly smaller workload, I am projecting Adams to finish around 1,000 yards and 8 TD's. Where would that stat line rank a WR? Last year that stat line would be good for the 15th best WR. Draft Adams with confidence as lower end WR with potential to crack the top 15.

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