WR Rankings - Value Picks

Looking for WR value picks in the later rounds? Look no further.

Each year I fill out a heat index before the draft to determine which player is going to give me the most bang for my buck in the later rounds. The tool I developed works by estimating the best guess ("Avg") and best possible outcome ("High") of a player's total yards and touchdowns. These statistics are then compared to the 2014 WR rankings to see where that player would have ranked if he had recorded the estimated statistics. The estimated final ranking number is then compared to the avg. draft position to see where the value is. Long story short, green means great value, red means poor value. Here is a sneak peak at my rankings: 

  Medium (Adjusted PY) High End Avg Drafted    
Name Yards TD's Points Yards TD's Points Medium High
Michael Floyd ARI 700 5 100 900 6 126 39 -2 12
Percy Harvin BUF 600 3 78 700 5 100 43 -15 2
Kendall Wright TEN 715 6 107.5 800 6 116 44 9 15
Doug Baldwin SEA 775 3 95.5 825 4 106.5 55 11 20
Michael Crabtree OAK 600 4 84 700 4 94 66 11 22

  • Michael Floyd is ready for liftoff in his 4th season in the NFL. After flashes of stardom in his first three seasons, he has not been able to put together a full year of solid production yet due to QB injuries and his own health problems. He is currently questionable for the first week of the regular season with a few dislocated fingers, which will make him an even greater draft day bargain. Before he was injured, I projected him to have a ceiling of a 1,000 yard season. I have tempered his expectation a little bit, but as his "high" number is 12, it indicates he has the ceiling of moving up from being the 39th WR drafted to the 27th best WR. 
  • Percy Harvin is perpetually overrated because he has the excitement factor. There are not many talents in the league that have his speed and strength combo. He needs a fresh start, which he now has in Buffalo. However, Rex Ryan is well known for being a run first coach (as they should be with their QB situation). As a receiver, Harvin has never exceeded 1,000 yards or 6 TD's. He has also struggled to stay on the field as he has only played 23 of a possible 48 games the last three years. Percy is being drafted as the 43rd best WR, however his stats rate him as a borderline WR4 and more likely WR5. Let someone else over pay for him. 
  • Kendall Wright is a steady possession receiver. He consistently puts up about 700 yards even if the TD's do vary. Wright is being drafted as a WR 4/5 right now and easily has top WR 3 upside. My high upside capped his yards at 800, but what if Marcus Mariota is the next Andrew Luck? That number could easily be higher. Wright has great value as he not only has a well established floor, but a high ceiling as well. 
  • Doug Baldwin is in a very similar situation to Kendall Wright. His game is a little more different as he will likely score less and have a tad more yardage to his name. Baldwin is locked in as the Seahawks #1 WR position and is entering his prime at age 26. No, he is not your typical late round WR pick as his upside is not sky high like you would traditionally like in a late round pick, however, he is being drafted as a middle of the pack WR5 when he is a clear cut WR4. Late in the draft Baldwin will provide you with stability.
  • Michael Crabtree has been cast away by the 49er's to join the Oakland Raiders. I can't believe I'm about to say this, but its actually a good thing. The Raiders have really improved on offense adding stud center Rodney Hudson and Alabama standout Amari Cooper. Throw in another year of seasoning for Latavius Murray and Derek Carr and this offense deserves respect. Crabtree isn't going to be your 1,000 yard threat anymore, but he will see plenty of good matchups as I expect Cooper to draw the opponents best corner as the season moves along. Crabtree is very capable of 700 yards and 4 TD's which would put him as a mid level WR4, whereas he is currently being drafted as the 66th WR. 

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