Daily Fantasy Football: Week 13

Doug Baldwin was the DFS story of Week 12. Who will be the Doug Baldwin of Week 13? Let's find out. 



The below recommendations and metrics are based on FanDuel pricing and scoring: 

Quarterback:
Marcus Mariota ($7,100) is my QB Stream of the Week. Mariota is facing the Jaguars defense at home. The Jacksonville secondary has been consistently bad all year, giving up the third most fantasy points to QBs this season (20.27) and third most points over the last three games (23.13).

Running Backs: 
Value Pick of the Week: Shaun Draughn ($5,900). Draughn has had 20 touches in each of his last three games. Meanwhile, he has seen his snap rate go up from 67% to 91% to 100%. That's right: Shaun did not miss a play on offense in Week 12. He is the definition of a workhorse. Furthermore, Draughn has lead the 49ers in targets since Gabbert became QB (21 targets), and he faces a porous Bears defense this week. I like Draughn's value this week... a lot.

David Johnson ($5,900) will likely be the lead back in Arizona with the Week 12 injuries to both RBs in front of him on the depth chart. CJ0K is on IR and won't be eligible to return until the Super Bowl. Ellington, on the other hand, is dealing with turf toe, which can significantly vary in severity; however, turf toe tends to linger. That being said, David Johnson is not priced as a starting RB, and he is facing what is, contrary to public opinion, a bad St. Louis Rams run defense who has been the fifth worst against opposing RBs over the last three weeks.

Doug Martin ($7,600) has a great matchup this week in Tampa Bay against a struggling Atlanta defense who has given up a league-high 26.99 points per game to opposing RBs this season.

Wide Receivers:
T.Y. Hilton ($7,300) is facing the Pittsburgh secondary that has allowed a league-high average of 49.45 FanDuel fantasy points to opposing WRs over the last three weeks. That's right, an average. Compare that to a Denver defense that has given up less than 40 total points to WRs over the last three weeks.

A.J. Green ($8,400), similar to T.Y. Hilton, has a nickname made out of initials. More importantly, though, Green also has a good matchup in Week 13. The Cleveland defense is sixth worst against WRs on the season and second worst against WRs over the last three weeks (second to only the aforementioned Steelers). 

Danny Amendola ($6,700), if he plays, or Brandon LaFell ($6,600) are both good values this week in a high upside matchup against the worst NFL secondary against opposing WRs this season (based on FanDuel points per game). The Philadelphia Eagles have given up more than 37 points on average this season to opposing teams' WRs. Also, were you aware that the Eagles defense has allowed 17 TDs over its last 18 quarters? Need I say more?

Tight End:
There are seven TEs priced higher than Delanie Walker ($6,000) this week. Why? I'm not sure. Walker is the most targeted member of the Titans offense (74 targets). He's seen 18 targets and converted them into 14 receptions in the last two weeks alone. Moreover, the Jacksonville Jaguars have given up a league-high 22.93 points per game to opposing TEs over the last three weeks. Other than Week 9 against New Orleans, Walker has not scored a TD since Week 1; this trend will not continue. I expect Delanie Walker to have a huge game this week.

Kicker: 
As I've said all year, kickers are more of a dart throw each week than any other position. My dart this week landed on Graham Gano ($5,000) who has a good matchup this week indoors in New Orleans. Don't mess with the possibility of snow elsewhere; this can be detrimental to kicker stats.

Defense: 
Nick Foles is an interception machine. I'm banking on at least one pick six from Foles this week. As such, the Arizona Cardinals defense ($5,400) is well worth the price if you have the salary to spend.

Good luck this week in your fantasy football matchups and tournaments. Feel free to reach out if you have any questions, and let us know how you do this week on Twitter (@Fantasy4um)

No comments:

Post a Comment